{"id":45165,"date":"2026-07-01T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/?post_type=audit&p=45165"},"modified":"2026-07-01T14:34:22","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T12:34:22","slug":"qualite-des-previsions-dans-les-bases-de-decision-destinees-au-parlement-et-au-peuple","status":"publish","type":"audit","link":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/fr\/audit\/qualite-des-previsions-dans-les-bases-de-decision-destinees-au-parlement-et-au-peuple\/","title":{"rendered":"Qualit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions dans les bases de d\u00e9cision destin\u00e9es au Parlement et au peuple"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Des pr\u00e9visions quantitatives sont souvent utilis\u00e9es dans des bases de d\u00e9cision telles que les messages et les explications du Conseil f\u00e9d\u00e9ral en vue des votations. Elles indiquent au Parlement et au peuple les cons\u00e9quences attendues en cas d\u2019acceptation d\u2019un projet. Soutenant la prise de d\u00e9cision, ces pr\u00e9visions contribuent de mani\u00e8re importante \u00e0 garantir le droit fondamental \u00e0 la libre formation de l\u2019opinion. Il est donc essentiel pour le bon fonctionnement de la d\u00e9mocratie directe qu\u2019elles soient d\u2019une qualit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9e.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Par le pass\u00e9, les pr\u00e9visions de la Conf\u00e9d\u00e9ration ont \u00e9t\u00e9 d\u00e9ficientes \u00e0 plusieurs reprises. En 2018 par exemple, le Tribunal f\u00e9d\u00e9ral a annul\u00e9 la votation populaire concernant l\u2019initiative contre la p\u00e9nalisation du mariage, car l\u2019estimation sous-jacente \u00e9tait erron\u00e9e. Le Contr\u00f4le f\u00e9d\u00e9ral des finances (CDF) avait lui aussi constat\u00e9 d\u00e8s 2016 des probl\u00e8mes dans l\u2019\u00e9tablissement des pr\u00e9visions. En 2020, le Conseil f\u00e9d\u00e9ral a donc pris un train de mesures pour am\u00e9liorer la qualit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions, dont font partie les directives de la Chancellerie f\u00e9d\u00e9rale (ChF) relatives aux pr\u00e9visions dans les messages et les explications du Conseil f\u00e9d\u00e9ral en vue des votations.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","audit_category":[31],"audit_type":[205],"class_list":["post-45165","audit","type-audit","status-publish","hentry","audit_category-administration-generale","audit_type-evaluation-fr"],"acf":{"audit_lang":null,"audit_numbers":[{"audit_number":"25138"}],"audit_office":[7967],"audit_office_text":"","audit_date":"20260701","bgo":false,"keywords":"","audit_office_local":"ChF"},"yoast_head":"\nQualit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions dans les bases de d\u00e9cision destin\u00e9es au Parlement et au peuple - Contr\u00f4le f\u00e9d\u00e9ral des finances (CDF)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Qualit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions dans les bases de d\u00e9cision destin\u00e9es au Parlement et au peuple\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/fr\/audit\/qualite-des-previsions-dans-les-bases-de-decision-destinees-au-parlement-et-au-peuple\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Qualit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions dans les bases de d\u00e9cision destin\u00e9es au Parlement et au peuple\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Qualit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions dans les bases de d\u00e9cision destin\u00e9es au Parlement et au peuple\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/fr\/audit\/qualite-des-previsions-dans-les-bases-de-decision-destinees-au-parlement-et-au-peuple\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Contr\u00f4le f\u00e9d\u00e9ral des finances (CDF)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/test\/palais.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"750\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Dur\u00e9e de lecture estim\u00e9e\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/fr\\\/audit\\\/qualite-des-previsions-dans-les-bases-de-decision-destinees-au-parlement-et-au-peuple\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/fr\\\/audit\\\/qualite-des-previsions-dans-les-bases-de-decision-destinees-au-parlement-et-au-peuple\\\/\",\"name\":\"Qualit\u00e9 des pr\u00e9visions dans les bases de d\u00e9cision destin\u00e9es au Parlement et au peuple - 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