{"id":45167,"date":"2026-07-01T23:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-07-01T21:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/?post_type=audit&#038;p=45167"},"modified":"2026-07-01T23:02:33","modified_gmt":"2026-07-01T21:02:33","slug":"forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate","status":"publish","type":"audit","link":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Bases for decision-making, such as Federal Council dispatches and explanatory statements on votes, often make use of quantitative forecasts. These forecasts provide Parliament and the electorate with an idea of the expected impact if a given legislative proposal is accepted. By supporting decision-making, forecasts make an important contribution to upholding the fundamental right to the free expression of will. High forecast quality is thus crucial to the functioning of direct democracy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">In the past, problems repeatedly arose with federal forecasts. For example, in 2018 the Federal Supreme Court struck down the popular vote on abolishing the marriage penalty because the underlying estimate was faulty. The Swiss Federal Audit Office (SFAO) had already observed problems with forecasting in 2016. In response, in 2020 the Federal Council adopted a series of measures to improve forecast quality. These measures included the Federal Chancellery&#8217;s guidelines on forecasts in dispatches and explanatory statements.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"featured_media":0,"menu_order":0,"template":"","audit_category":[30],"audit_type":[183],"class_list":["post-45167","audit","type-audit","status-publish","hentry","audit_category-general-administration","audit_type-evaluation-en"],"acf":{"audit_lang":null,"audit_numbers":[{"audit_number":"25138"}],"audit_office":[1309],"audit_office_text":"","audit_date":"20260701","bgo":false,"keywords":"","audit_office_local":"FCh"},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v28.1 (Yoast SEO v28.1) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate - Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK)<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK)\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-07-01T21:02:33+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/test\/palais.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"750\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"500\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"1 minute\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/audit\\\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/audit\\\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\\\/\",\"name\":\"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate - Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK)\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2026-07-01T21:00:00+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2026-07-01T21:02:33+00:00\",\"description\":\"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/audit\\\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/audit\\\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/audit\\\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\\\/#breadcrumb\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Home\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Report\",\"item\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/audit\\\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate\"}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/\",\"name\":\"Informationen \u00fcber das oberste Finanzaufsichtsorgan der Schweiz\",\"description\":\"Die Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK) ist das oberste Finanzaufsichtsorgan der Schweizerischen Eidgenossenschaft.\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"alternateName\":\"EFK\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":{\"@type\":\"PropertyValueSpecification\",\"valueRequired\":true,\"valueName\":\"search_term_string\"}}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/#organization\",\"name\":\"Swiss Federal Audit Office (SFAO)\",\"alternateName\":\"EFK\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/\",\"logo\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/efk_cdf_logo_ohne_claim.png\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/efk_cdf_logo_ohne_claim.png\",\"width\":268,\"height\":258,\"caption\":\"Swiss Federal Audit Office (SFAO)\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.efk.admin.ch\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/logo\\\/image\\\/\"},\"sameAs\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/www.instagram.com\\\/efk_cdf_sfao\\\/\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.youtube.com\\\/channel\\\/UCm-bXj227VE5sJzhB-ihdvw\\\/featured\",\"https:\\\/\\\/www.linkedin.com\\\/company\\\/11081578\\\/\"]}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO Premium plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate - Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK)","description":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate","og_description":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate","og_url":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/","og_site_name":"Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK)","article_modified_time":"2026-07-01T21:02:33+00:00","og_image":[{"width":750,"height":500,"url":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/test\/palais.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Est. reading time":"1 minute"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/","url":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/","name":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate - Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK)","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/#website"},"datePublished":"2026-07-01T21:00:00+00:00","dateModified":"2026-07-01T21:02:33+00:00","description":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate","breadcrumb":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/#breadcrumb"},"inLanguage":"en-US","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/"]}]},{"@type":"BreadcrumbList","@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/forecast-quality-in-the-decision-making-bases-for-parliament-and-the-electorate\/#breadcrumb","itemListElement":[{"@type":"ListItem","position":1,"name":"Home","item":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":2,"name":"Report","item":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/audit\/"},{"@type":"ListItem","position":3,"name":"Forecast quality in the decision-making bases for Parliament and the electorate"}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/#website","url":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/","name":"Informationen \u00fcber das oberste Finanzaufsichtsorgan der Schweiz","description":"Die Eidgen\u00f6ssische Finanzkontrolle (EFK) ist das oberste Finanzaufsichtsorgan der Schweizerischen Eidgenossenschaft.","publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/#organization"},"alternateName":"EFK","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":{"@type":"PropertyValueSpecification","valueRequired":true,"valueName":"search_term_string"}}],"inLanguage":"en-US"},{"@type":"Organization","@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/#organization","name":"Swiss Federal Audit Office (SFAO)","alternateName":"EFK","url":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/","logo":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-US","@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/efk_cdf_logo_ohne_claim.png","contentUrl":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/efk_cdf_logo_ohne_claim.png","width":268,"height":258,"caption":"Swiss Federal Audit Office (SFAO)"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/#\/schema\/logo\/image\/"},"sameAs":["https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/efk_cdf_sfao\/","https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCm-bXj227VE5sJzhB-ihdvw\/featured","https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/11081578\/"]}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/audit\/45167","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/audit"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/audit"}],"acf:post":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/office\/1309"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=45167"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"audit_category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/audit_category?post=45167"},{"taxonomy":"audit_type","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.efk.admin.ch\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/audit_type?post=45167"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}